My dissertation, The dynamics of perennial crop production and processing, focused on the economics of perennial crop production, with applications to Brazilian sugarcane and the expansion of the Brazilian biofuel industry.

Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

The welfare effects of controlled environment propagation in the US strawberry nursery industry

(with Jung Hoon Han and Yue Shan) - Forthcoming at Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Economic Contributions of the Green Industry in the United States in 2023

(with Melinda Knuth, Alan Hodges, Charles R. Hall, and Hayk Khachatryan) - Journal of Environmental Horticulture, 2026, 44(2), 68–75.

AbstractThe economic contributions of the green industry in the United States were estimated for eight sectors in 2023 using information on industry employment and wages, and economic multipliers from a U.S. IMPLAN economic model. Total direct industry output was estimated at $223 billion (B), and total output contributions, including indirect and induced regional economic multiplier effects, were $520 B. The total value-added contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was $303 B, including labor income contributions of $175 B, other property income contributions of $106 B, and taxes paid to local, state, and federal governments of $69.1 B. The industry had direct employment of 1.48 million full-time and part-time individuals, and total employment contributions of 2.95 million jobs in the broader economy. Since the previous study for 2018, overall green industry contributions increased by 12.5% for employment, 20.8% for labor income, 14.9% for output, and 31.1% for GDP in inflation-adjusted terms. Although the growth has moderated, the green industry expanded strongly during the COVID-19 pandemic, and remains an essential contributor to national, state, and local economies. These findings provide benchmarks for policymakers and industry stakeholders and underscore the importance of the U.S. green industry’s role as a driver of regional development.

The USDA-SCRI CucCAP Projects: Building Genomic, Breeding and Disease Management Tools for Cucurbit Crops

(with Rebecca Grumet, Zhangjun Fei, Amnon Levi, Michael Mazourek, James McCreight, Lina Quesada-Ocampo, Yiqun Weng, Sandra Branham, Mary Hausbeck, Anthony Keinath, Shaker Kousik, Melinda Knuth, Angela Linares Ramirez, Kai-Shu Ling, Cecilia McGregor, Geoffrey Meru, Marco Palma, Umesh Reddy, Luis Ribera, Jonathan Schultheis, Christine Smart, Patrick Wechter, Todd Wehner, Linda Wessel-Beaver, William Wintermantel, and Shan Wu) - Journal of the American Society for Horticultural Science, 2026, 151(2), 126–146.

AbstractCucurbit crops including watermelon (Citrullus lanatus), melon (Cucumis melo), cucumber (Cucumis sativus), squash, and pumpkin (Cucurbita spp.) make important nutritional and flavorful contributions to the human diet. The primary challenge for US cucurbit production is disease caused by numerous fungal, oomycete, bacterial, and viral pathogens that reduce crop yield and quality and engender costly control measures. The USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture–Specialty Crop Research Initiative funded CucCAP (Cucurbit Coordinated Agricultural Project) projects “CucCAP: Leveraging applied genomics to improve disease resistance in cucurbit crops” and “CucCAP2: Harnessing genomic resources for disease resistance and management in cucurbit crops–Bringing the tools to the field” brought together members of the cucurbit community across the country with expertise in genomics, bioinformatics, breeding, genetics, plant pathology, integrated disease management, and economics to address these disease challenges. Collectively, the projects produced extensive genomic resources and bioinformatic tools including genome assemblies and pan-genomes for cucurbit species; genetically characterized the full US National Plant Germplasm System (NPGS) collections for watermelon, melon, cucumber, and squash; developed deeply resequenced core populations for these crops; identified single nucleotide polymorphism and structural variants; and developed the Cucurbit Genomics database (CuGenDB, http://cucurbitgenomics.org/v2/). New sources of resistance were identified for 17 cucurbit crop/disease combinations; quantitative trait loci were mapped and molecular markers developed for 24 combinations; and 15 breeding lines with resistances to various diseases were released. New detection methodology was developed for several pathogens; extensive disease monitoring and multilocation disease management trials and resistance tests were performed; a centralized web portal (https://cuccap.org) was developed to provide cucurbit disease information in English and Spanish; and disease management information was shared with growers, commodity groups and industry organizations through publications and presentations at conferences, field days, and extension schools delivered at more than 100 venues in 24 states. The CucCAP projects were carried out through joint efforts among 26 university and USDA coinvestigators and their research groups along with valued input and assistance from NPGS cucurbit crop curators, seed industry collaborators, cucurbit growers, external evaluators, and international collaborators. In addition to the specific genomic, breeding, and disease management outputs, the CucCAP projects have had broader impacts including use of the new genomic tools to provide insights into cucurbit biology, synergistic effects resulting from a more cohesive cucurbit community, and scientific training of a cadre of students and postdoctoral researchers.

Conditioning Pre-Plant Grapevines Using Controlled Environment Agriculture Can Reduce Vineyard Establishment Time

(with Kyle A. Freedman and Mark Hoffmann) - American Journal of Enology and Viticulture, 2026, 77, 0770004.

Abstract

Background and goals: The manipulation of supplemental light and environmental conditions in greenhouses has been shown to increase grapevine size and fruiting capacity prior to transplanting and presents an opportunity for advanced starter plant material. The goal of this study was to conduct an economic analysis on Precise Indoor Vine Conditioning (PIVC) as a proof-of-concept system to optimize nursery production of grapevines.

Methods and key findings: Research costs from a PIVC study were organized into a crop budget. Using net present value (NPV) and data from existing commercial crop budgets, we modeled the grower profitability of establishing a new vineyard with PIVC vines in three grape production systems in the United States. In addition, we calculated the price premium for a PIVC vine beyond the cost of a conventional starter vine and used sensitivity analysis (with research costs as an input) to identify the most promising avenues for increasing profitability of PIVC vine production for a nursery. NPV analysis revealed that variety and region have a strong impact on production system profitability and the use of PIVC vines can be more profitable than conventional systems for Cabernet Sauvignon in the San Joaquin and Napa Valleys, CA. The price premium a grower may be willing to pay for a PIVC vine beyond the cost of a conventional vine was $0.52 to $7.43 for Cabernet Sauvignon in the San Joaquin Valley and $6.92 to $31.18 in the Napa Valley.

Conclusions and significance: PIVC vines have the potential to reduce costs and increase returns for growers during the early years of vine establishment, thereby increasing profit. The PIVC system can also be profitable for grapevine nurseries with reductions in production costs that come at commercial scale and increased vine density.

The California Strawberry Nursery Industry: Overview, Challenges, and the Prospects of Controlled Environment Agriculture

(with Yue Shan, Jung Hoon Han, and Mark Hoffmann) - International Journal of Fruit Science, 2026, 26(1), 2614139.

AbstractCalifornia produces nearly 90% of U.S. strawberries, and its nursery industry supplies transplants to growers nationwide and globally. This study combines a literature review with interviews from three California nursery firms to examine industry challenges and evaluate whether Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) technology could complement existing propagation systems. The sector faces mounting pressures including disease risks, labor shortages, supply chain complexity, climate variability affecting chilling accumulation, and uncertainty surrounding potential methyl bromide phase-out. While CEA systems are integrated into European strawberry nurseries, California’s use remains limited to early propagation stages. Evidence suggests CEA technologies could potentially reduce disease transmission and weather-related vulnerabilities at certain supply chain points. However, significant barriers limit adoption, including high capital requirements, skilled labor scarcity, challenges scaling to meet production volumes, and insufficient economic data. While CEA may offer targeted applications as a complementary tool, fundamental questions about scalability, economics, and integration into existing production systems require further research.

Patterns of Sustainability Practices in North Carolina’s Ornamental Horticulture Industry

(with Nick Berenson, Amanda Solliday, and Melinda Knuth) - Choices, 2025, 40(4), 1–6.

The influence of water conservation practices on US nurseries’ decision to sell native plants

(with Melinda Knuth, Alicia Rihn, Bridget Behe, Bryan Peterson, and Marco Palma) - HortScience, 2025, 60(8), 1359–1365.

AbstractNative plants are becoming a highly demanded horticulture product because of the general public’s interest and government policies promoting them. As a result, plant growers are increasingly incorporating native plants in their plant offerings. But, what business and environmental factors influence grower adoption of native plants? This gap in the literature is addressed through an investigation of US grower survey data from 2013 and 2018 using a zero-one-inflated beta model. Results indicate that some key factors such as water sources and type of plant products influence the likelihood of native plant adoption across the models, but variables such as rainfall and population density around business locations do not. These results have important implications for policies that promote the growth of native plants and prospective horticultural industry growers.

A Diamond in the Rough: Identifying Heritage Crop Niche Markets in the U.S. Using a Discrete Choice Experiment

(with Yefan Nian, R. David Lamie, Michael Vassalos, Ben Boyles, and Diana Vossbrinck) - Agricultural Economics, 2025, 56(6), 940–960.

AbstractHeritage crops are grown from open-pollinated old cultivars and are considered significant in their connection to human culture and food systems. Although developing market opportunities and promoting their production can be an effective strategy to conserve them, little is known about US consumers’ awareness, interest, and preferences for them. In this study, we conducted a national survey and used a discrete choice experiment with five different crops (i.e., apple, cabbage, rice, squash, and tomato) to systematically investigate US consumers’ preferences for heritage crops. We found that US consumers’ awareness of heritage crops is limited. Their willingness-to-pays (WTPs) for these crops are relatively modest and vary between heirloom crops, which emphasize the legacy and time aspects of the crops, and heritage crops, which demonstrate the cultural and historical aspects of the crops. However, consumers’ WTPs for heritage crops appear consistent across US regions and consumers’ residency areas (i.e., cities, suburbs, and rural areas). Only a few consumers’ lifestyle variables tend to be correlated to their WTPs. The findings of this study provide substantial empirical evidence to help farmers identify marketing opportunities for heritage crops and examine the feasibility of using a market-driven approach to conserve heritage crops in the United States.

Developing Practical Measures of the Price of Pesticide Resistance: A Flexible Computational Framework with Global Sensitivity Analysis

(with Chanheung Cho, Zachary Brown, and Kevin Gross) - Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2024, 3(1), 212–227.

AbstractPesticide resistance poses an increasing challenge for agricultural sustainability. Pesticide susceptibility is a depletable biological resource, but resistance management rarely quantifies marginal, forward-looking economic costs to users of depleting this resource. We use a generic stochastic bioeconomic model of pesticide resistance evolution in a crop pest population, stochastic dynamic programming, and global sensitivity analysis to analyze the ‘marginal user costs’ of resistance. The most impactful parameters on these costs are population density dependence and pesticide prices. Least impactful is the fitness cost of resistance, which is noteworthy because of prior emphasis on this parameter in the resistance management literature.

Estimating Perennial Crop Supply Response: A Methodology Literature Review

(with Jonathon Siegle, Gregory Astill, and Zoë Plakias) - Agricultural Economics, 2024, 55(2), 159–180.

Outstanding Published Paper which Significantly Contributed to the SCE Discipline, Specialty Crop Economics Section, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2024.

AbstractPerennial crops are important both economically and as a component of a healthy and nutritious diet (e.g., many fruits and nuts). However, the study of perennial crop production and farmer response to output price changes (i.e., supply response) is complex thanks to the dynamic nature of investment and decision making in these industries. The body of literature relevant to perennial crop supply response is also small relative to that of annual commodity crops. In this article, we contribute the first literature review on perennial crop supply response modeling in more than 30 years. We catalog advancements in estimating perennial crop supply response and discuss the application of these methods and trade-offs economists should be aware of when using them. In addition, we highlight future modeling developments that may be valuable to the field, with the hope this research will encourage additional economic research on this interesting and important topic and in turn provide new insights for perennial crop producers and policymakers.

Minimizing the costs of biorefinery processing by managing perennial crop age: The case of Brazilian sugarcane

(with David Zilberman) - Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2023, 55(2), 376–398.

AbstractWe develop and analyze an unexplored mechanism to reduce biorefinery supply chain costs when the feedstock is a perennial crop: adjusting the age structure, and hence yield, of the perennial feedstock. The non-monotonicity of the age-yield function introduces a non-convexity to the cost minimization problem. We show that, despite this, the problem has a solution and present analytic and numeric comparative statics, finding that larger refineries are most likely to benefit from optimizing age structure. The model is calibrated to the sugarcane industry in Brazil. The cost reductions from optimizing age, compared to the observed regional average age, are less than 1%.

Willingness-to-Pay for Produce: A Meta-Regression Analysis Comparing the Stated Preferences of Producers and Consumers

(with Alice Kilduff) - Horticulturae, 2022, 8(4), 290.

Featured Paper and Editor’s Choice.

AbstractWillingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates help agribusinesses estimate whether a new product is likely to be profitable. For produce, new products, such as new fruit varieties, need to be adopted by producers before they can be sold to consumers. The study of ex ante fruit and vegetable producer preferences is relatively new. This study uses meta-regression analysis to compare the estimated WTP premium between U.S. producers and consumers to determine whether they differ. After controlling for differences in study methods, product attributes, and potential publication bias, the producer WTP was between 14.16 and 27.73 percentage points higher. Subject to several caveats and limitations, this suggests that consumer WTP can be a sufficient metric for the profitability of new produce products.

Balancing bees and pest management: Projected costs of proposed bee-protective neonicotinoid regulation in California

(with Kevi Mace, Jessica Rudder, Rachael Goodhue, Tor Tolhurst, Hanlin Wei, Elizabeth Grafton-Cardwell, Ian Grettnberger, Houston Wilson, Robert Van Steenwyk, Frank Zalom, and John Steggall) - Journal of Economic Entomology, 2022, 115(1), 10–25.

Outstanding Published Paper which Significantly Contributed to Transdisciplinary Work or Specialty Crop Industries, Specialty Crop Economics Section, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2022.

AbstractNeonicotinoid insecticides are widely used in agriculture, including in many California specialty crops. With mounting evidence that these insecticides are harmful to bees, state and national governments have increasingly regulated their use. The European Union, Canada, and United States have imposed use restrictions on several neonicotinoids, such as on the timing of applications. In 2020, California proposed a draft regulation to mitigate harm to managed pollinators from four nitroguanidine-substituted neonicotinoids (NGNs): clothianidin, dinotefuran, imidacloprid, and thiamethoxam. We use data on California pesticide use from 2015 to 2017 to analyze the economic and pest management implications of the 2020 draft proposed regulation for seven crops: almond, cherry, citrus, cotton, grape, strawberry, and tomato. From 2015 to 2017, these crops accounted for approximately 85% of total hectares treated with NGNs and 87% of NGN use by kilograms of active ingredient applied in treatments that would have been affected by the proposed regulation. These insecticides often primarily target Hemipteran insect pests. In most cases there are alternatives; however, these are often more expensive per hectare and do not have the same residual effectiveness as the NGNs, which are systemic insecticides. Overall, we estimate that pest management costs for these crops would have increased an estimated $13.6 million in 2015, $12.8 million in 2016, and $11.1 million in 2017 if the 2020 draft proposed regulation had been in effect, representing a 61% to 72% increase in the cost of managing the target pests.

Working Papers

U.S. Consumer’s Perceptions of Undocumented Agricultural Labor

(with Ben Campbell, Will Secor, and Samyam Shrestha) - Under review at Agriculture and Human Values.

The Optimal Management of Orchards

(with Leo Simon)

Link to current draft

AbstractPerennial crops, particularly fruit and tree nut orchards, represent a high-value sector in global agriculture, yet the theory of optimal management with production smoothing preferences in multi-age-class orchards remains unresolved. While previous analyses examine either single-tree models or multi-age orchards without production smoothing, we analyze orchards where growers prefer stable production over time and must manage trees of multiple ages simultaneously. This paper characterizes optimal tree replacement strategies and their long-run dynamics: when to replace trees and whether to replace them simultaneously or partially, and how orchards evolve toward steady-state management patterns. We first extend existing two-age-class models by characterizing complete transition dynamics, correcting an omission in previous work, and developing comparative statics for optimal cycle amplitude. We then introduce a three-age-class model that provides the first complete convergence characterization for orchards with non-monotonic yield curves and production smoothing preferences. For both models, we prove that optimally managed orchards exhibit cyclical production patterns with partial rather than simultaneous replacement, and demonstrate finite-time convergence: arbitrary initial age distributions converge to optimal cycles within two periods (two-age-class) or a bounded number of periods (three-age-class). We identify a ‘cycle region’ where initial allocations immediately generate optimal cycles. Our results are applicable to other point-input, flow-output capital assets with non-monotonic productivity.

Disease, Yield Decline, and Perennial Supply Response: Evidence from Florida Orange Production

The Impact of the Replant Rate on Perennial Crop Yields: The Case of Sugarcane in Brazil

(with David Zilberman)

Works in Progress

  • Measuring the potential impacts of further citrus greening spread on the US citrus industry with a dynamic EDM (with Zoë Plakias and Greg Astill)
  • Measuring grower willingness-to-pay for improvements in sweetpotato disease resistance (with Alice Kilduff)
  • Estimating costs and returns to controlled environment strawberry nurseries (with Yue Shan, Mark Hoffmann and Ricardo Hernandez)
  • USDA Cost of Production Estimates for NC Blueberry and Grape Industry (with Derek Washburn and Cassie Scanlan)