My dissertation, The dynamics of perennial crop production and processing, focused on the economics of perennial crop production, with applications to Brazilian sugarcane and the expansion of the Brazilian biofuel industry.

Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

The influence of water conservation practices on US nurseries’ decision to sell native plants

(with Melinda Knuth, Alicia Rihn, Bridget Behe, Bryan Peterson, and Marco Palma) - Forthcoming at HortScience.

Abstract: Native plants are becoming a highly demanded horticulture product due to the general public’s interest and government policies promoting them. As a result, plant growers are increasingly incorporating native plants into their plant offerings. But, what business and environmental factors influence grower adoption of native plants? This gap in the literature is addressed through an investigation of U.S. grower survey data from 2013 and 2018 using a zero- one-inflated-beta (ZOIB) model. Results indicate that some key factors such as water sources and type of plant products influence the likelihood of native plants adoption across the models, but variables such as rainfall and population density around business location do not. These results have important implications for policies that promote the growth of native plants and prospective horticultural industry growers.

A Diamond in the Rough: Identifying Heritage Crop Niche Markets in the U.S. Using a Discrete Choice Experiment

(with Yefan Nian, R. David Lamie, Michael Vassalos, Ben Boyles, and Diana Vossbrinck) - Agricultural Economics, 2025.

Abstract: Heritage crops are grown from open-pollinated old cultivars and are considered significant in their connection to human culture and food systems. Although developing market opportunities and promoting their production can be an effective strategy to conserve them, little is known about US consumers’ awareness, interest, and preferences for them. In this study, we conducted a national survey and used a discrete choice experiment with five different crops (i.e., apple, cabbage, rice, squash, and tomato) to systematically investigate US consumers’ preferences for heritage crops. We found that US consumers’ awareness of heritage crops is limited. Their willingness-to-pays (WTPs) for these crops are relatively modest and vary between heirloom crops, which emphasize the legacy and time aspects of the crops, and heritage crops, which demonstrate the cultural and historical aspects of the crops. However, consumers’ WTPs for heritage crops appear consistent across US regions and consumers’ residency areas (i.e., cities, suburbs, and rural areas). Only a few consumers’ lifestyle variables tend to be correlated to their WTPs. The findings of this study provide substantial empirical evidence to help farmers identify marketing opportunities for heritage crops and examine the feasibility of using a market-driven approach to conserve heritage crops in the United States.

Developing Practical Measures of the Price of Pesticide Resistance: A Flexible Computational Framework with Global Sensitivity Analysis

(with Chanheung Cho, Zachary Brown, and Kevin Gross) - Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2024, 3(1), 212–227.

Abstract: Pesticide resistance poses an increasing challenge for agricultural sustainability. Pesticide susceptibility is a depletable biological resource, but resistance management rarely quantifies marginal, forward-looking economic costs to users of depleting this resource. We use a generic stochastic bioeconomic model of pesticide resistance evolution in a crop pest population, stochastic dynamic programming, and global sensitivity analysis to analyze the ‘marginal user costs’ of resistance. The most impactful parameters on these costs are population density dependence and pesticide prices. Least impactful is the fitness cost of resistance, which is noteworthy because of prior emphasis on this parameter in the resistance management literature.

Estimating Perennial Crop Supply Response: A Methodology Literature Review

(with Jonathon Siegle, Gregory Astill, and Zoë Plakias) - Agricultural Economics, 2024, 55(2), 159–180.

Outstanding Published Paper which Significantly Contributed to the SCE Discipline, Specialty Crop Economics Section, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2024.

Abstract: Perennial crops are important both economically and as a component of a healthy and nutritious diet (e.g., many fruits and nuts). However, the study of perennial crop production and farmer response to output price changes (i.e., supply response) is complex thanks to the dynamic nature of investment and decision making in these industries. The body of literature relevant to perennial crop supply response is also small relative to that of annual commodity crops. In this article, we contribute the first literature review on perennial crop supply response modeling in more than 30 years. We catalog advancements in estimating perennial crop supply response and discuss the application of these methods and trade-offs economists should be aware of when using them. In addition, we highlight future modeling developments that may be valuable to the field, with the hope this research will encourage additional economic research on this interesting and important topic and in turn provide new insights for perennial crop producers and policymakers.

Minimizing the costs of biorefinery processing by managing perennial crop age: The case of Brazilian sugarcane

(with David Zilberman) - Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2023, 55(2), 376–398.

Abstract: We develop and analyze an unexplored mechanism to reduce biorefinery supply chain costs when the feedstock is a perennial crop: adjusting the age structure, and hence yield, of the perennial feedstock. The non-monotonicity of the age-yield function introduces a non-convexity to the cost minimization problem. We show that, despite this, the problem has a solution and present analytic and numeric comparative statics, finding that larger refineries are most likely to benefit from optimizing age structure. The model is calibrated to the sugarcane industry in Brazil. The cost reductions from optimizing age, compared to the observed regional average age, are less than 1%.

Willingness-to-Pay for Produce: A Meta-Regression Analysis Comparing the Stated Preferences of Producers and Consumers

(with Alice Kilduff) - Horticulturae, 2022, 8(4), 290.

Featured Paper and Editor’s Choice.

Abstract: Willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates help agribusinesses estimate whether a new product is likely to be profitable. For produce, new products, such as new fruit varieties, need to be adopted by producers before they can be sold to consumers. The study of ex ante fruit and vegetable producer preferences is relatively new. This study uses meta-regression analysis to compare the estimated WTP premium between U.S. producers and consumers to determine whether they differ. After controlling for differences in study methods, product attributes, and potential publication bias, the producer WTP was between 14.16 and 27.73 percentage points higher. Subject to several caveats and limitations, this suggests that consumer WTP can be a sufficient metric for the profitability of new produce products.

Balancing bees and pest management: Projected costs of proposed bee-protective neonicotinoid regulation in California

(with Kevi Mace, Jessica Rudder, Rachael Goodhue, Tor Tolhurst, Hanlin Wei, Elizabeth Grafton-Cardwell, Ian Grettnberger, Houston Wilson, Robert Van Steenwyk, Frank Zalom, and John Steggall) - Journal of Economic Entomology, 2022, 115(1), 10–25.

Outstanding Published Paper which Significantly Contributed to Transdisciplinary Work or Specialty Crop Industries, Specialty Crop Economics Section, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2022.

Abstract: Neonicotinoid insecticides are widely used in agriculture, including in many California specialty crops. With mounting evidence that these insecticides are harmful to bees, state and national governments have increasingly regulated their use. The European Union, Canada, and United States have imposed use restrictions on several neonicotinoids, such as on the timing of applications. In 2020, California proposed a draft regulation to mitigate harm to managed pollinators from four nitroguanidine-substituted neonicotinoids (NGNs): clothianidin, dinotefuran, imidacloprid, and thiamethoxam. We use data on California pesticide use from 2015 to 2017 to analyze the economic and pest management implications of the 2020 draft proposed regulation for seven crops: almond, cherry, citrus, cotton, grape, strawberry, and tomato. From 2015 to 2017, these crops accounted for approximately 85% of total hectares treated with NGNs and 87% of NGN use by kilograms of active ingredient applied in treatments that would have been affected by the proposed regulation. These insecticides often primarily target Hemipteran insect pests. In most cases there are alternatives; however, these are often more expensive per hectare and do not have the same residual effectiveness as the NGNs, which are systemic insecticides. Overall, we estimate that pest management costs for these crops would have increased an estimated $13.6 million in 2015, $12.8 million in 2016, and $11.1 million in 2017 if the 2020 draft proposed regulation had been in effect, representing a 61% to 72% increase in the cost of managing the target pests.

Working Papers

Improving economic performance of vineyard establishment: PIVC grapevines can increase profits for growers

(with Kyle A. Freedman and Mark Hoffmann) - Revise and resubmit at American Journal of Enology and Viticulture.

Patterns of Sustainability Practices in North Carolina’s Ornamental Horticulture Industry

(with Nick Berenson, Amanda Solliday, and Melinda Knuth) - Revise and resubmit at Choices.

U.S. Consumer’s Perceptions of Undocumented Agricultural Labor

(with Ben Campbell, Will Secor, and Samyam Shrestha) - Under review

The Optimal Management of Orchards

(with Leo Simon)

Predicting perennial crop yields using the replant rate: The case of sugarcane in Brazil

(with David Zilberman)

The opportunities and challenges of adopting controlled environment technology in the US strawberry nursery industry

(with Jung Hoon Han, Yue Shan, and Mark Hoffmann)

The welfare effects of controlled environment propagation in the US strawberry nursery industry

(with Jung Hoon Han and Yue Shan)

Works in Progress

  • State-space approaches to perennial crop supply response: An application to citrus greening in Florida (with Zoë Plakias and Greg Astill)
  • Measuring the potential impacts of further citrus greening spread on the US citrus industry with a dynamic EDM (with Zoë Plakias and Greg Astill)
  • Measuring grower willingness-to-pay for improvements in sweetpotato disease resistance (with Alice Kilduff)
  • Estimating costs and returns to controlled environment strawberry nurseries (with Yue Shan, Mark Hoffmann and Ricardo Hernandez)
  • Consumer Preferences for Heritage Crops (with Dave Lamie, Michael Vassalos, Yefan Nian, Diana Vossbrink, and Ben Boyles)
  • USDA Cost of Production Estimates for NC Blueberry and Grape Industry (with Derek Washburn and Cassie Scanlan)